The Fox That Plays Golfs

An angry fellow writes to tell me he is an expert on digging dogs and knows all about sheep and fox.

Except it seems he lives in an east coast state about three hours away and he has never even *seen* a sheep in that state.

Really?

Okay. Cool. I will accept he is an expert in working terriers and all other things.

Who knows,  he might be. 

Never heard of the guy before, but the "stars" on the cover of the supermarket tabloids are a complete mystery to me as well. 

That said, being angry at someone you have never met or communicate with before sure is a strange way to introduce yourself. 

As for sheep in his state, I sent him a link to his state’s lamb and sheep society so maybe he can broaden his horizons on small ruminants? Trying to be helpful.

So what’s he pissed off about?

Well, apparently he is quite sure that fox are killing a lot of sheep.

Okay. Cool.

And does he have video of this from anywhere?

Nope.

Ok. Has he not noticed that while red fox and sheep are found all over the world, and subject to great debate, both together and apart, that *no one* is posting loads of video showing fox attacking sheep? In fact, we’ve got more video evidence of the Loch Ness monster, Big Foot, Leprechauns, and the Roswell Aliens than we do of fox attacking sheep.

And has he looked into sheep mortality rates on islands without any predators at all? New Zealand and Tasmania data are easy to find. What’s he think about that?

Angry man had no answers, but assured me he was a very skilled dog man and he *knew*.

Let me hasten to say that I don’t doubt this fellow is the greatest digging dog man of all time; an expert in all things canine and pastoral. Just ask him!

But that really wasn't the topic, was it?

On the little matter of fox and sheep, angry man had no data, nor did he have any video from any country taken at any time anywhere under any circumstances.

Which, I think, illuminates quite a lot.

So, what kills sheep?

I discuss that at some length, in the context of the UK hunting debate, here >> https://terriermandotcom.blogspot.com/2014/01/what-kills-sheep.html

As I note:

In a world where less than 1% of sheep are killed by fox, and 15-25% of all lambs in some areas are dying from exposure to weather, perhaps the solution is not to shoot more fox to preserve sheep, but to construct more turn out pens, sheds and hedges where lambs can tuck in to get out of the weather? 

The terrier and hound hunting world does not make this point, because to do so would be to admit that fox are not really the fierce lamb killers that they are made out to be. 

The animal rights world does not make this point because to do so would be to admit that ending fox hunting is actually a pretty small cause compared to ending sheep mortality from bad weather.

Vegans can organize protests and send cash-generating direct mail to oppose fox hunting but it's not nearly as lucrative or as fun to start a Kickstarter program to build 100,000 turn out sheds on private property.

And so the pantomime goes on, in which hounds men claim that fox are killing loads of sheep, and animal rights lunatics claim hounds are killing loads of fox.  Never mind that neither statement is actually true!

Is there more?

Sure. Sheep mortality and predation statistics bounce around a bit by breed type, geography, browse, and weather, but the general frame is robust all over the world, from Wales to Canada, from Ireland to Montana, from Australia to Spain, and from New Zealand to Scotland, and the general thrust is this:

• Many sheep breeds have been genetically selected to produce twins and even triplets, but ewes often get internally jammed up and blocked, or are unable to adequately feed their progeny
  ;
• Sheep are easily distracted and not too bright and the result is a high rate of neonatal abandonment — a phenomenon called “mismothering”;
  
  
• Sheep give birth to wet lambs in low-light seasons and in cold and wet weather, too often leading to death by exposure, a phenomenon too rarely ameliorated by providing adequate shelter;
  
  
• Sheep are often over-grazed with poor nutritional support;
  
  
• Sheep are often mismanaged, with the result being a breaking of bonds between ewes and lambs, leading to abandonment and starvation;
  
  
• Sheep are susceptible to a wide variety of parasites, diseases, and nutritional deficiencies, which can result in abortion, miscarriage, and stillborns. Weak and low-scoring ewes are far more likely to produce weak or dead lambs.

That’s the general problem.

Then there is the *specific* problem of predation.

Because the US has good statistics, let’s look at the numbers close to home.

First, does the US have sheep? Yes, we do. Millions of them.

Do we have predators? Yes, we do. Millions of them, and over a dozen different varieties.

Are red fox among those predators? Yes they are. There are millions of red fox all over the US.

So, what’s the data show?

Let’s start with a simple set of data from 1999, which is easy to find.

• The US had a sheep population of 7.2 million in 1999.
  
  
  
• The lamb crop that same year was 4.75 million.
  
  
  
• Sheep and lamb loss from all causes in 1999 was 784,000. Of this total, lamb loss from all causes was 488,00.
  
  
• Of the total loses, 63.2 percent were from non-predators (472,700) and 36.7 from predators (275,700).  See >> https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/nahms/sheep/downloads/sheepdeath/SheepDeath99.pdf for all the numbers cited.

Going to another statistics source for the same 1999 year, we find (not all states listed) that 273,000 sheep and lambs were claimed to have been killed by predators.

Of these:

• 165,800 were credited to coyote
  
  
• 41,300 were credited to dogs
  
  
• 15,600 were credited to mountain lion
  
  
• 12,700 were credited to bobcats
  
  
• 10,700 were credited to eagles
  
  
• 8,100 were credited to foxes
  
  
• 7,800 were credited to bears
  
  
• 11,000 were credited to all other animals.  See >> https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/6108vb26w/gf06g540m/c821gn602/sgpl-05-05-2000.pdf for all the numbers cited above.

I say “credited” because these numbers were generated from a survey of sheep ranches and farms, and it’s psychologically easier to blame a predator for a dead lamb than it is to note “scavenging” of another lamb lost from mismanagement and mismothering.

If we assign all fox predation to lambs, we find fox account for 1.6 percent of lamb loss. Taken more broadly, fox account for about 1 percent of all sheep mortality and that out of a national flock of 7.2 million sheep, fox are responsible for a 0.1125 percent loss per year. That’s a little over one-tenth of one percent.

The good news is that we know how to sharply reduce sheep mortality.

If you read the studies, however, there’s little or no mention of predators of any kind; that’s not where the big gains are to be made, especially in countries with few (or no) large predators.

For example, in Australia we find detailed discussion about “lifetime ewe management” programs that dramatically boost lamb survival rates with little more than a few daily handfuls of grain. See >> https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/6544895/lifting-lamb-survival-rates-to-drive-the-flock-rebuild/ 

You can use the Google to find similar programs and advice from all over the world. When it comes to pragmatic programs for increasing lamb survival, the folks who actually count pennies and pounds are not calling for terriermen or sharpshooters; they are calling for better nutritional support and more turnout sheds.

Maybe they know something about sheep? Could be.

As for fox, with so many aborted and still-born lambs, and neonatal lamb deaths from exposure, abandonment, and starvation, they have quite a lot to scavenge in early spring sheep pastures.

Throw in afterbirth and testicles that have been banded off, loads of milk-rich sheep shit, and the mice and voles to be found in every farm field, and it’s a vulpine all-you-can-eat buffet without any need for predation at all.

Will a fox drag off a bit of dead lamb to feed the kits? Sure. But look at the sheep mortality data. Fox don’t have to work too hard to eat a bit of lamb. 

A sheep flock that generates 100 lambs a year is going to generate 5-20 dead lambs in the absence of *all* predators.... as well as 100 afterbirths, to say nothing of the testicles and milk-rich sheep shit. 

A little wool or dead lamb next to a fox den is simply evidence that Mother Nature recycles and repurposes. Is that surprising?

And what does it mean if there’s a sheep shank found in a fox den? 

What if we find a golf ball in that same den?

Was the fox playing golf? Did the fox kill the sheep?

And to be clear, I am not saying that a fox could *not* play golf.  

I'm just saying I’d like to see the video tape.