Thursday, May 04, 2017

Why "Peak Baby" Does Not Tell You Much



In 1970, there were half as many people in the world as there are now.

The good news is that 50 years ago average average fertility rate in the world - the number of babies born per woman - was five. Since then, number has dropped to 2.3 - something unprecedented in human history - and global fertility continues to trend downwards. In the last decade the global total number of children aged 0-14 has leveled off at around two billion, and it appears we have reached "peak baby".

The bad news is that world population will continue to grow for at least another 50 years, even if fertility does not rise again. This is due to demographic momentum. Like a car going down the road at 100 miles an hour, global population continues to roll forward for a very long time even after you have taken your foot off the gas.

What about war and periodic outbreaks of disease? They have no impact at all because most disease is going away, and so too is most war. The world has never been more disease-and-conflict free than it is right now.


1 comment:

Greg Mu said...

"The world has never been more disease-and-conflict free than it is right now."

Unless you count chronic metabolic conditions as disease, in which case we're as sick as we've ever been (and many who study metabolism theorize that's precisely why fertility rates have plummeted).