The Dying AKC Is Proof Darwin Was Right

Like the dinosaur that has noticed it has been raining ash from the sky for three straight weeks, the AKC is starting to become aware they are an ancient creature in a new world.

Over at Canine Chronicle, a publication written for the inbred dog show crowd about their inbred show dogs, Gerry Meisels has a piece entitled The Future of Conformation Shows, which begins:

A few weeks ago I stood by the ringside along with some of my friends and watched the judging in a Terrier breed, not my own Westies though. We watched several breeds, and I found out pretty quickly that my friend felt that the judge consistently put up the best known face in the ring. I couldn’t disagree with his opinion of this multiple group judge. Then we got ourselves a cup of coffee and the conversation became very wide ranging, from the decline in entries, to the aging of club members and exhibitors, the quality and cost of show facilities, individual dogs of various breeds – you surely have been in similar conversations yourself. After about half an hour or so we both became quiet and sat opposite each other on one of the food court’s picnic tables. Then out of a clear blue sky my friend said, “The way things are going, there will be no conformation shows in ten or fifteen years.” My friend, a long-time breeder and exhibitor in a Terrier breed different from mine, is quite knowledgeable about dogs and shows. He owner-handled one of his dogs to the top of the rankings, and has served as show chair and president of his club. The sense of the statement, that Conformation Shows (CSs) were in decline, did not surprise me but the vehemence and strength of that statement blew me away and set me to thinking. Are things really that bad, or is it just that shows are changing?

Meisels goes on to say things ARE really bad, but he valiantly looks for hope.

But here's the scoop: there isn't any.

We no longer live in an era of rabbit ear antennas on the TV and a belief that the color of a person's skin should determine their place in life.

The horseless carriage is gone, and so too is the  notion that there are "blue bloods" and royalty.

People who sniff about their pedigree and their ancestors are screaming failures.  The most important people in the world are folks like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Barack Obama, and Elon Musk. Not a blue blood or hint of royalty among them.

And beauty pageants? When was the last time you saw one of those on TV? They are a product of the "Mad Men" era; an embarrassing anachronism that women's groups no longer even have to protest.  They are dead all on their own.

And dog shows? They too are from another era. No one wants to be part of a parade of mutants, where deformed and diseased dogs with entirely fake histories are trotted out at the end of a string leash.

It's always been a freak show (and not just for the dogs!), but now we know and understand the crackpot eugenic theories that underpin it all, and the freight train of pain and disease that has followed.

And no, it does not help that the AKC itself not only winks at puppy mills but actually helps to subsidize them.

Conformation dog shows come from an era in which women knew better than to speak up, gays were closeted, and blacks were at the back of the bus.

Conformation dog shows come from an era in which gas had lead in it, and salt was not iodized.

In short, dogs shows come from an era when we were a little bit stupider than we are today.

Back in 2010, I predicted that the AKC would go out of business by 2025, and time has not shown me to be wrong.  AKC registrations, which topped 1.5 million in 1992, were down to 716,000 in 2010 and are now down to 400,00.

Back in 2008 I quoted AKC Chairman Ron Menager who bemoaned market economics and wondered why the American people were no longer quite so gullible.  Menager wrote:

The American Kennel Club faces enormous challenges in reversing the continuing decline in registrations. Today, we are losing market share at an alarming rate, especially in the retail sector. We are being challenged competitively and financially. The declining registrations and associated core revenues, if allowed to continue, will fundamentally change our organization going forward. Make no mistake, the very future of the AKC and our sport is at risk. ....

.... AKC used to dominate the marketplace. Even places like Macy's and Gimbels sold AKC puppies. Many pet owners who bought these puppies, and I was one of them, tried their hand at showing and breeding.

For decades we collected millions of registration dollars from AKC pet owners. These millions overwhelmingly subsidized our sport. Today, this scenario no longer exists. Twenty-five years ago almost all of our revenue was registration related. Last year less than one half of our revenues came from registrations. Dog registrations peaked at 1.5 million in 1992. By the end of 2008 it is projected we will register only 725,000 dogs. This is a staggering 53% decline.

... If the current trend continues and dog registrations decline to 250,000 over the next several years, AKC will face an annual revenue shortfall of $40 million. ... a $40 million revenue shortfall would necessitate a reduction of our expenses by two-thirds. This is totally unrealistic.

So, did the AKC register only 725,000 dogs in 2008? They did not. They registered LESS than that, and the numbers are now down to 400,000, with more declines to follow.

At a certain point, as Menager notes, there is an economic tipping point. The tipping can be slowed down by trying to find other sources of revenue, such as trying to create a veterinary and insurance company kickback scheme, which the AKC has tried, but in the end market forces are going to be too much and gravity and common sense are going to win.

So when Gerry Meisels' friend says "The way things are going, there will be no conformation shows in ten or fifteen years,” he has it exactly right.

Like the dinosaur that has noticed it has been raining ash from the sky for three straight weeks, the AKC is starting to become aware they are an ancient creature in a new world.

Adapt or die? 

There was a time where adaptation might have been possible, but that point is past.

The AKC has become a toxic brand with failed leadership and no viable economic model.

They are frozen in amber and unfit for function and, as Darwin predicted for such creatures, they are doomed to extinction.

But will life go on? Oh yes. Count on it!