Life comes with risks, but humans are notoriously bad at gauging risk, a situation exploited every day by politicians, health gurus, and insurance salesman.
This morning, while writing about probabilities and predictions, I was reminded of an old speech opener I’ve used once or twice before.
Back in 1962, NASA held a press conference before the launching of a Mercury spaceship into its first earth orbit.
A reporter asked rocket scientist Wernher von Braun how he knew where in the Pacific Ocean the Friendship 7 space capsule would land.
Von Braun nodded. Good question.
“Well,” he said in his thick German accent. “This is an issue of mathematics and probabilities”
“The rocket will reach a top speed of 17,534 miles per hour, and the earth rotates at a speed of 1,020 miles per hour at the equator. The space capsule will make three orbits of the earth before re-entry at 32.5 degrees of inclination. If the angle of attack is greater than 35 degrees on reentry, the space capsule will burn up, but if it’s less than 30 degrees the space capsule will skip off the atmosphere ike a stone on water.”
There was silence in the room.
The reporter nodded, not understanding any of it.
He tried again.
“But Dr. von Braun, earlier you said the Friendship 7 capsule could stay afloat in the ocean for at least 45 minutes before sinking, allowing US Navy destroyer Noa plenty of time to come in and pick it up.
“But that supposes the destroyer is very close by. How do you know *exactly* where the space capsule will land in the Pacific?”
Von Braun nodded.
“Yes,” he said. “It is very complicated. The angle of the dangle is affected by changing gravitational pull at different heights over Earth, but …. in the end… it is a calculated risk.”
At which point, John Glenn whispered: “Could I see those calculations?”
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Pictured: John Glenn and Wernher von Braun in the control room of Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
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