Assumed and Relative Risk

A little over 12 years ago I wrote:

When push comes to shove, we are going to get to a place in the next 20 years or so when conservation and preservation of predator species is going to be less of a concern than sensible management.

I think we are very nearly there.

Now I think we need to have a national talk about relative and assumed risk.

I bring this up because every once in a while a mountain lion attacks a jogger or bicyclist.

When a human is attacked, trackers with hounds fan out and the big cat is invariably shot and killed.

I am not second-guessing the removal of these mountain lions; no sensible person would. That said, it does take you down the path to risk analysis and response.

A bicyclist is far more likely to die from cholesterol-choking cheese, a car accident, or alcohol poisoning, than from a cougar attack, and yet we do not ban these associated products -- we heavily promote them.

Cougar, wolf and grizzly bears are inherently dangerous animals -- they will attack and kill you under certain circumstances. That said, those circumstances are sufficiently rare that it is very clear that it does not take too much effort to tip the scale to the point that the lion, bear, or wolf thinks better of the arrangement. You can do things to reduce attack, and you can take precautions.

When I go into the woods in deer season on a Saturday, for example, I assume the risk of being shot. I lower that risk if I wear an orange hat or vest.

When I walk solo through the Smokies just as black bears are leaving their dens in the spring, I assume the risk of a chance encounter. I lower that risk if I sing loudly as I go up the trail, and occasionally bang my walking stick against a rock.

If I mountain bike alone, I assume the risk of pitching down a ravine and bleeding out. I lower that risk if I travel with someone else, wear a helmet, and carry a cell phone.

The point is that similar steps can dramatically reduce your risk in cougar, bear, and wolf country, and those steps are not particularly onerous. Carry a walking stick and wear a hat and know the value and use of both. Do not engage in long-distance running or biking on brushy slopes in cougar country, and pack your food and pans away from your tents, and up a tree, in bear country.

Above all, however, realize that the chance of attack is extremely remote and that your odds of attack can be reduced to near-zero by taking a few common-sense precautions.

You cannot teach a wolf or cougar to be a vegetarian, but you can teach humans a few common sense tips that dramatically reduce the risk of attack.

Finally, remember this: When you are in the woods, you are far more likely to be killed by a swarm of bees, a falling tree, or a lightning bolt than you are by a bear, lion or wolf.

If you want to live in fear, live in fear of bees.