One Week to the Election

It’s one week to the election, and I am *guaranteed* to be wrong, but here’s how I think it’s going.

▪️I’m expecting an early evening i.e. I’Il be in bed and drifting off to sleep by 10 PM. 

▪️I think there are three things happening that could drive the election.

1. The first is that a significant number of Trump supporters now know he’s a bad guy, and that he’s both physically feeble and mentally demented. They see and hear him as he is now, and they remember January 6th. Those 34 felony convictions are real, as is the sexual assault finding, and the huge financial liabilities Trump now faces. Trump is set to be sentenced on those 34 felony convictions in three weeks. What’s that mean? I suspect 5 percent of Trump’s old supporters will simply not turn out to vote.
2. The second issue is what I will call “cut and fill” on the Republican side.  A Republican not voting is *half* as good as Republican switching sides, because he’s not only *not* voting for the Republicans, he’s voting *for* the Democrats.  I think perhaps 5 percent of Republicans will switch sides. That would be enormous. Under this scenario, Trump would hold 90 percent of his 2020 voters and lose 15 percent of “his” vote to Harris.
3. The third factor is Democrats are pretty energized. Non-voters are the biggest political party in the US, but the GOTV efforts by the Dems is pretty impressive, while the Republican operation appears to be in chaos or non-existent. The NRA is broke, the veterans are being insulted, and the economy is roaring under Biden-Harris. I suspect Trump will lose white women voters for the first time. He won white women in 2016 and in 2020 — and by a larger margin in 2020 than in 2016. At the same time, black women are incredibly energized, and are taking leadership positions to turn out the vote. Big stuff is happening!

The real issue is the Senate. Hogan will lose Maryland, and I think Cruz will lose in Texas. Tester will hold Montana. The Dems will lose WV.  I think Osborn might win Nebraska. Casey will hold PA.  Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin are nail-biters, but women and the unions may help hold all three. Gallego will win AZ. In the end, when the dust settles, we *may* hold the Senate, but it’s too damn close to bet.

I think the Dems will take the House (barely), but I haven’t been nose counting.  The Democratic money train is flowing, and the GOTV push at the top will help lift all boats.  The race I’m most interested in is the Alaska seat, as it’s a ranked choice race, which is unusual.