Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Conservatives Win in the U.K

I am predicting the future again.

How do I do that?

There is a method, and it's simple enough: You go to "Intrade" and see how the betting folks are putting down their coin. This is how they count it on the eve of the election:
  • Conservatives to win next UK General Election: 91.4

  • Labour to win next UK General Election: 8.6

  • Liberal Democrats to win next UK General Election: 2.5

Having played Intrade, I then go to look at RealClearPolitics to read the headlines:
  • Labour Candidate Slams Gordon Brown as Worst PM in History

  • Poll: Cameron Needs 14 Seats

  • RCP Average: Conservatives +6.4

Then I head over to RealClearWorld where I find everyone has the conservatives winning the election, albeit narrowly.

Bottom line: Cameron will win, Gordon Brown will disappear into a monastery, and Clegg will become a popular gadfly who will be given the reins to moderate Cameron so that the widows and orphans in the U.K. will not be sold off to the cannibal islands to balance off the foreign trade losses.

In short, the world will trim its sails and carry on, moving forward, in a slightly different direction.
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1 comment:

  1. Seahorse12:29 AM

    As of early this evening, there was no clear majority and the negotiating games are on. Should be interesting.

    Seahorse

    ReplyDelete

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